Concerns are growing within the Democratic Party that polls may once again be underestimating Donald Trump's support as the 2024 election nears. Much like in 2016 and 2020, pollsters face significant challenges in accurately gauging Trump's backing, especially in key battleground states where he has historically outperformed polling predictions.
Polling misfires in past elections are adding to the unease. In 2016, polls in critical states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin consistently showed Trump trailing Hillary Clinton. However, Trump ultimately won all three states, securing his path to the White House. The 2020 election saw similar discrepancies, with polls showing Trump behind by larger margins than the final results indicated, particularly in states like Pennsylvania, where he lost by only 1.2%.
I am leading Kamala very bigly amongst the two most accurate Pollsters in history. Rasmussen and AtlasIntel. pic.twitter.com/tyEFGPa89u
— Donald J. Trump – Parody (@realDonParody) September 24, 2024
Polling experts cite a variety of factors behind the potential for undercounting Trump's support. One key issue is the so-called "shy Trump voter" phenomenon, where voters may be reluctant to disclose their support for Trump to pollsters due to societal pressures. Additionally, many Trump supporters, particularly those in rural areas or without college degrees, may be less likely to participate in polls, contributing to a skewed sample.
Republicans are also pushing back on the accuracy of current polls, arguing that they often under-sample conservative voters. A recent survey in Pennsylvania, for instance, showed Vice President Kamala Harris with a slight lead, but Republicans pointed out that only 37% of respondents had voted for Trump in 2020—well below the 48.8% he actually garnered in the state.
Trump has 7-8 points from voters who won’t tell pollsters.
Democrat insiders know this. So what kind of devious bullshit is next from them? pic.twitter.com/kwTDLZcyLB— 🇺🇸🇺🇸Young Uncle Sam 🇺🇸🇺🇸 (@MickP_22) September 24, 2024
Moreover, Trump supporters are known for their deep mistrust of mainstream media and polling institutions, which may lead them to avoid responding to pollsters altogether. As a result, many analysts believe Trump's base may not be fully captured in the data.
Despite these concerns, Democrats remain hopeful that their efforts to mobilize voters, particularly women and young people energized by issues like abortion rights, will counterbalance any hidden Trump surge. Since the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, voter registration among pro-choice women has spiked, particularly in key swing states. However, some Democratic strategists fear that this won’t be enough to offset the potential for yet another polling upset.
Pollsters, for their part, have made efforts to refine their methodologies since the errors of 2016 and 2020, including better modeling of voter turnout and demographics. However, it remains to be seen whether these adjustments will be sufficient to capture the full scope of Trump’s support in 2024.
With the election fast approaching, the margin of error is razor-thin. If Trump’s base, which includes a large share of non-traditional voters and those without a consistent voting history, turns out in force, it could once again confound pollsters and lead to another electoral shock. Democrats are preparing for a tight race and the possibility that, despite what polls indicate, Trump could once again pull off an Election Day surprise.
