In the latest analysis from CNN's senior data reporter, Harry Enten, the 2024 presidential race could come down to a razor-thin margin. Enten argues that if former President Donald Trump outperforms his current polling by just one percentage point in key battleground states, it could be enough to secure his return to the White House. As it stands, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in one of the tightest contests in recent memory.
According to Enten, while national polls show a slight edge for Harris, this lead is well within the margin of error, particularly in critical swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Trump's campaign remains highly competitive across the Sun Belt states as well. Enten points out that public and private polling indicates that Trump could take the lead in these crucial states as his support strengthens.
Woman says Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio are catching animals, k*ll*ng them, and then feasting on their remains.
A reported illegal from Haiti was caught doing that in the middle of the day.
We need mass deportations on day one of Trump’s second term. pic.twitter.com/29tMa7yFrl
— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) September 9, 2024
Polls by the New York Times and Siena College further highlight the closeness of the race, with Trump holding a narrow lead over Harris in some areas. These polls suggest Trump has gained significant ground among white voters, growing his support from 49% in 2020 to 54% in 2024.
This demographic could play a pivotal role in a race where the electorate is expected to be composed of nearly 70% white voters.
Trump will save them pic.twitter.com/5GCXVYVlUg
— Jack Poso 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) September 9, 2024
Enten emphasizes the historical context, warning Democrats not to underestimate Trump. As seen in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, Trump has consistently outperformed polling expectations, especially in battleground regions. This trend could repeat in 2024, given the close margins and Trump's ability to galvanize his voter base.
Adding to Trump's momentum is a broader sentiment among voters who want change. A majority, 61%, expressed a desire for a president who represents a significant departure from the policies of Joe Biden's administration. With Trump positioning himself as the candidate of change, this could resonate strongly with those dissatisfied with the status quo.
Enten's analysis also sheds light on Harris's challenges. Despite her gains in certain polls, particularly with working-class voters, she faces an uphill battle. Many voters remain unconvinced that Harris represents the shift they seek, while Trump, with his anti-establishment rhetoric, continues to dominate that narrative.
As the election approaches, it’s clear that even the smallest shift in polling could have a massive impact. Trump’s ability to close gaps in key regions, combined with the ongoing weaknesses of Harris’s campaign, could make all the difference come November. Both campaigns are expected to ramp up efforts in battleground states as they battle for every last vote in what may become the closest presidential race in modern history.
